In February, President Hugo Chávez won a referendum allowing him (and any other public official) to be re-elected indefinitely. A total of 54% of the electorate supported this option, but did this represent a recent peak in the Venezuelan President’s popularity?

Over recent months Chávez provoked a diplomatic row with Colombia and sent troops to the border, while annual inflation continues at 27%, and electricity and water outages frustrate the population nationwide.

Last month a poll by the firm Datanalisis found that support for Chávez dipped to 52.8%, from 61% earlier in the year. It appears that complaints about the President and his administration are mounting.

One has to wonder if the Venezuelan president is at risk of losing his re-election bid, and if the decline in support is deeper and more permanent. There is plenty of time, however, for circumstances to change between now and 2012.

There remains no clear or united opposition figure to mount a campaign against the current administration. In the meantime, should oil prices continue to rise (they are back near $80/barrel) as the world crawls out of the economic recession, the government can continue funding its popular social programs, and salvage its popularity once again.

Please refer to an AP story presented at CBS.com for further information.

How is it that Venezuela, awash in energy resources, experiences blackouts?

Although it is a global leader in oil production, most of the country’s power comes from hydroelectric dams, including one of the word’s largest, Guri. Unfortunately a combination of drought and failing infrastructure has severely reduced capacity for power-generation. A NYT article gives a nice overview of the situation.

Critics of the Venezuelan government might claim that the power outages are evidence of poor governance and use of public funds.

Personal experience tends to confirm a general neglect of infrastructure and maintenance in Caracas. During my time there, I frequently passed through Parque Cristal, a sparkling, crystalline office building with offices for wealthy businesses and the United Nations. Month after month, however, one of the main escalators remained in disrepair. Our neighborhood went without water for 10-hour periods and yet when it rained the streets flooded due to insufficient drainage.

Chávez may have won a referendum in February allowing him and any other government official to run for office indefinitely, but when he comes up for election in 2012, he does need to win more votes than his competitor (discounting any potential fraud). The current power outages cannot be helping Chávez’s prospects for reelection, since all sectors of society, even his supporters, suffer. Will the public, however, remember their frustrations two years from now?

Then again, when it comes to spending, the United States Congress also finds it easier to pay for new construction rather than repairs. A U.S. PIRG report, released this month, examined earmarks for transportation spending from 2008. It found that, excluding emergency funds after the I-35 bridge collapse in Minnesota two years ago, and despite claims that more than 70,000 U.S. bridges needed some type of repair, “only slightly more than 10 percent of the highway funds allocated for [Congressional] “member projects” in that year’s appropriations bill went to bridge repair or restoration”.

Perhaps it is human nature to seek out what is new and overlook the old? The fashion industry – not to mention our entire consumer-oriented culture – depend on this inclination. And so, when it comes to building, it may be a lot more satisfying to raise a new structure than to maintain one from years past. That is small consolation to Venezuelans. Despite sitting atop millions of barrels of oil, the power outages are likely to continue.

The Venezuelan government is, once again, moving soldiers to the border region with Colombia. The 15,000 troops are intended to “increase security, combat drug trafficking and root out paramilitary groups”.

It seems like déjà vu, as Chávez sent 6,000 soldiers there in March 2008, after Raul Reyes of the FARC was killed on Ecuadorian territory.

As Christopher Toothaker reports for the Associated Press, Chávez may be trying to divert the public’s focus towards an external enemy, and avoid criticism on the home front. He writes that:

“some of Chavez’s critics say the socialist leader is intentionally picking a fight with Colombia to turn public attention away from pressing domestic problems such as rampant crime, a weak economy and rationing of electricity and water”.

The kidnapping and murder of at least nine Colombians along Venezuela’s border region during late October once again increased tensions between the two countries, which are already on shaky diplomatic terms. An article within El Universal gives a nice overview of recent political exchanges between Caracas and Bogotá.

The Venezuelan vice president, Ramón Carrizález, declared that the Colombians killed along the border area were paramilitaries, and went so far as to say that this incursion was part of a “systematic attack” by Colombia and the US. In addition, Caracas accused Colombia’s Administrative Department of Security (DAS) of sending agents into its territory, and detained two accused spies in early October.

The majority of writing on these events focuses on the identification of the murdered Colombians. Who, however, were the perpetrators of the killings? If the Venezuelan government has evidence on the victims, it would also seem appropriate to clarify who carried out the kidnappings. Did Caracas somehow know of the kidnappers ahead of time? If not, what does this say about the capacity of the local authorities? Either way, this serves as another sad chapter in an increasingly dangerous country. Venezuela has seen a dramatic rise in murders and kidnapping over recent years.

On a lighter note, if the Colombians were indeed paramilitaries, it seems fitting, given South America’s passion for soccer, that they were located at a match. Whereas in the United States one might imagine a police raid on some decrepit warehouse or dimly lit back-office, where do people of all backgrounds congregate in Latin America? At the local soccer field.

Further reporting on border events can be found at BBC and BBC Mundo.